Point Proven Forever

There’s some argument that the Phillies’ payroll isn’t really capped at $140 millionish, and thus that Werth isn’t necessarily gone. You can ask where any additional money would come from given that they played to 103% of capacity plus maximum playoff rounds for the last two seasons, but that might be the wrong way to frame the question.

The question isn’t whether they can make as much money as they did in 2008 and 2009, it’s what makes them the most money in 2011 and 2012 and 2013. (Let’s just go ahead and assume that in 2014-2016 they are old and screwed.)

One of the big pushes in sabermetrics the last few years is to determine not just how many wins above replacement a given player is — what BP calls WARP and Fangraphs calls WAR — but also how much money those wins are worth. The basic premise is that winning teams get better attendance and make more money, but even more importantly, teams that make the playoffs cash in big time. So wins up to about 81 are worth the same amount, then each win is suddenly worth a lot more, peaking at about 91,  then coming back down again because there’s no point paying for more wins than it takes to make the playoffs.

So wins are worth more money to contenders, which is why they’ll pay the premium. And it’s not the same for every contender, either; the Twins don’t make as much money as the Red Sox no matter what.

The market price of a win, from free-agent signings, appears to be about 4.5 million dollars this year. For a big-market contender, like the Phillies, it might be more like 6 million.

In other words, all other things being equal, the Phillies are MORE LIKELY to turn a profit paying $160 million for a team that should win about 93 games than they are to turn a profit paying $140 million for a team that should win about 89 games.

Which makes the question: Can Jayson Werth get them those four wins?

Werth’s WAR the last two years was 5.0 and 4.8. That means he was worth $22.5 million and $21.8 million, based on each year’s market prices, to the average team. He was worth more to the Phillies. (BP has him at 4.8 and 5.8 WARP those two years, about the same.)

$22 million!  No one is saying Werth is going to get that kind of money.  $16 or $18, which is more like what I’ve heard, would be a steal for five wins.

But let’s remember that the Phillies’ other choice isn’t a replacement-level player getting paid the minimum, it’s Domonic Brown getting paid the minimum. Here are PECOTA’s projections for the next three years:

Werth 2011  4.0 WARP
Werth 2012  3.7
Werth 2013  3.0

Brown 2011  2.1
Brown 2012  2.3
Brown 2013  2.4

So PECOTA thinks that Werth would gain them 1.9, 1.4, and 0.6 wins each of those years.

That’s only worth paying a premium of about $12, $9, and $4 million. So there’s obviously no way the Phillies want to do that.

But — PECOTA always predicts declines for guys over 30, because that’s the safe bet. Let’s give Werth credit for being a stud who should have been good years earlier if not for the Dodgers medical staff, and suppose that he will retain values more like 5.0, 4.5 and 4.0 wins those years.

And, let’s suppose Brown isn’t really a major leaguer yet and is only worth 1.0 wins each of those years. Or that they move Brown to left and play a 1-win guy like Ben Francisco in right.

Now Werth gains them 4.0, 3.5, and 3.0 wins. That would be worth a premium of $24, $21, and $18 million.

If that’s how the next three years go, then the Phillies can, and should, keep him at the prices I’m hearing, like 5 years/$80 million.

Unfortunately I just gave the same presentation to Theo Epstein.

I love the Plácido Polanco signing!  He was off my radar because I assumed he would sign somewhere to play second, not third. Not to mention that I thought the Tigers would offer him arbitration.

It’s not thinking way outside the box or anything, but I definitely like having your starting 3B be your backup 2B. You keep the bat in the lineup instead of throwing Juan Castro out there, and there are more bats you can plug in at third, like Greg Dobbs.

Oh, and the dude never strikes out, for those of you who think the Phillies lineup could use a little of that.

Don’t worry about the people saying that he hasn’t played third base in four years. It’s easier than second, not harder. And it’s not like you’re asking him to learn something new; he’s played 2400 innings there in the major leagues. His defense will be fine. (Not as good as that of Pedro Feliz, whom, for the record, I would also have been happy to keep — if you’re punting offense, it had better be for one of the consensus best glovemen at the position.)

Bottom line: I’d've liked to get Chone Figgins, but this definitely beats drinking the Kool-Aid on Mark DeRosa, or rolling the dice on the health of Adrian Beltre or Troy Glaus.

Hatchet job anyone?  Seems like T.J. Simers and Bill Plaschke of the L.A. Times were a little grumpy that they had to rewrite their pieces on deadline.

Simers:

Maybe it’s in the breeding, the Dodgers getting Sherrill from a loser like Baltimore.

…

But you know, you learn something about people, spending time in a clubhouse. Sherrill has been a loner since arriving here, an outcast really by his own choosing, and when things got their toughest for the Dodgers, he was a man on an island again — and come to think of it, that’s probably where he belongs today.

He got in trouble in the eighth, so Torre had to go to Broxton to bail him out, the Dodgers’ winning formula not accounting for that — Broxton a skittish pup with his own problems, as any seasoned Dodgers fan knows.

Plaschke:

With two out in the ninth inning Monday, two strikes from a Dodgers victory that would even this National League Championship Series, Rollins hit a two-run double into the right-field gap against Broxton to give the Philadelphia Phillies a shocking 5-4 victory and probably insurmountable three games to one lead.

But the game wasn’t lost then, Broxton fighting a fierce battle with a former league MVP.

The game was lost moments earlier, when Broxton folded in a timid battle with his ghost.

Folded! Ghost! In the breeding!

Look, I adore this Phillies team. They work really hard and they all seem like genuinely nice people (except maybe Brett Myers).

But the Dodgers are also really good players doing the best they can to win games.

This rivalry has given us some great baseball. Let’s not ruin that by confusing it for real life.

Put this one in the win column for the Fightin’ Phils! [link is video]

Just as she did during Game 4 of last year’s NLCS, Mrs. Spreadsheet (née Superstition) went upstairs and stopped watching as the Phillies trailed late. And it worked again. Jonathan Broxton must hate her.

Looks like it’s Pedro in Game 2.

I don’t like it as much because that means Cliff Lee in Game 3, thus not again until Game 6:

• Game 1, Thu 10/15, @LA.
  • Cole Hamels
• Game 2, Fri 10/16, @LA.
  • Pedro Martinez
• off Sat 10/17
• Game 3, Sun 10/18, Phi
  • Cliff Lee
• Game 4, Mon 10/19, Phi
  • Joe Blanton is apparently more likely to get the extra start than J.A. Happ is.
• off Tue 10/20
• Game 5, Wed 10/21, Phi
  • Cole Hamels, no longer starting twice in Dodger Stadium
• off Thu 10/22
• Game 6, Fri 10/23, @LA
  • Cliff Lee
• Game 7, Sat 10/24, @LA
  • Pedro Martinez
    

And even worse: what if they can’t play in Philadelphia on Sunday night because of the weather?

• Game 1, Thu 10/15, @LA.
  • Cole Hamels
• Game 2, Fri 10/16, @LA.
  • Pedro Martinez
• off Sat 10/17
• rained out Sun 10/18
  
• Game 3, Mon 10/19, Phi
  • Cliff Lee
• Game 4, Tues 10/20, Phi
  • Joe Blanton
• Game 5, Wed 10/21, Phi
  • Cole Hamels
• off Thu 10/22
• Game 6, Fri 10/23, @LA
  • Cliff Lee on short rest after all?  Might as well have pitched him in Game 2. Or Pedro Martinez? It might depend on whether the Phils are up 3-2 or down 3-2 in the series.
• Game 7, Sat 10/24, @LA
  • Pedro Martinez or Cliff Lee

I say don’t take the chance. Pitch Lee on short rest in Game 2 in warm sunny Los Angeles.

By the way, I am hoping the Sunday night game does get postponed. We have tickets to Game 4, and I teach Monday nights.

• Game 1, Thu 10/15, @LA.
  • Cole Hamels obviously starts Game 1, never goes on short rest because he’s Cole Hamels.
• Game 2, Fri 10/16, @LA.
  • Cliff Lee. On short rest, but if you wait until Game 3 you don’t get him until Game 6, and I want Cliff Lee pitching twice in the first five games, period. And I’d rather have him pitching on short rest in Dodger Stadium than Citizens Bank Park.
• off Sat 10/17
• Game 3, Sun 10/18, Phi
  • J.A. Happ. And Joe Blanton in relief if necessary, as in the NLDS.
• Game 4, Mon 10/19, Phi
  • Joe Blanton, or Pedro Martinez if Blanton pitches in Game 3.
• off Tue 10/20
• Game 5, Wed 10/21, Phi
  • Cliff Lee on normal rest.
• off Thu 10/22
• Game 6, Fri 10/23, @LA
  • Cole Hamels. I know it’s a small sample size, but Hamels has pitched 16 innings at Dodger Stadium and allowed 8 singles, 2 doubles, and 2 walks. That’s .182/.211/.218.
• Game 7, Sat 10/24, @LA
  • Hall of Famer Pedro Jaime Martinez. Call it a hunch.
  • Whoever the starter is, if he struggles early, everyone but Hamels is available.

Anyone else get the feeling that this NLCS rematch isn’t going to be over in five games?

is Mrs. Spreadsheet, who went to the kitchen to not watch the ninth inning. It worked. Yes, we are a bit superstitious.

Sir Spreadsheet will be missing the last couple innings of Game 1. Why? Because he has class. He would skip class, but he is in fact the instructor. What is he teaching people about? Spreadsheets, of course.